🇦🇺 AU · Housing Fear & Greed
Australia.
Where the housing market sits.
Australian housing market sentiment computed from the ABS Residential Property Price Index, the RBA cash rate plus a typical variable-rate spread, and 2021 Census median household income. Inventory and listings data are not yet sourced for AU markets.
Updated 20h ago
Latest data: 2025-10-01
ABS RPPI (5-city pop-weighted) · RBA · 2021 Census
4 of 5 Australian markets sit in Bubble Watch, the country’s dominant regime this quarter.
Regime quadrant · Where every market sits
Australia
triangle = country aggregate
· tap or hover a dot for details
What this shows.
Every tracked market currently sits in
Bubble watch or Expensive stagnation.
No market right now is in
Recovery or Buyer's market.
When markets do migrate into those quadrants, it signals a real
regime shift worth tracking.
Each market is positioned by its affordability score (left = least affordable) and momentum score (top = running hot). The four quadrants name the regime each combination describes. Triangles are country aggregates; circles are individual cities.
National gauges
Affordability
1
Extreme — bottom decile
0 · Most expensive100 · Most affordable
- Price-to-income
- Median home price divided by median household income, normalized against ten-year national history.
- Mortgage payment burden
- 51.9%30-year amortized payment at current rates as a share of median household income.
- Price-to-rent
- Median home price divided by annual rent on a comparable property — cross-checks the rental-equivalent affordability.
Momentum
68
Above average
0 · Cooling/declining100 · Running hot
- Year-over-year price growth
- CoreLogic Home Value Index (HVI) year-over-year percentage change.
- Inventory tightness
- Months of supply at current sales pace — a low number means tight inventory.
- Days on market
- —Not yet sourced for this market — see methodology.
- Sale-to-list ratio
- Average ratio of final sale price to original asking price.
Regime · What the gauges say together
Bubble watch
Unaffordable and still appreciating in real terms.
Unaffordable, and still climbing.
Context
| Real price growth (3-mo annualized) | +13.34% |
| Headline mortgage rate | 6.1% |
| Variable mortgage rate | 6.1% |
| RBA cash rate | 4.75% |
| CPI year-over-year | 1.02% |
| Leading equity indicators (homebuilders/REITs) | -4.1% avg vs 200-day MA · breadth 0/3 |
Cities
At the national level, the Australian reading sits in Bubble Watch, with affordability 1/100 and momentum 68/100. Sydney is the coolest, with momentum at 49/100.